Market Update: 10 November 2026

Tuesday 10 November 2026, 07:20 AEDT, with the US cash session still open. Commentary from the Neo-X OTC Desk and the Neo-X Derivatives Desk. Wholesale clients only. All levels are illustrative and are not quotes; Neo-X quotes an all-in rate on request.

At a glance

Monday split risk assets in two. US equities recovered more than half of last Thursday's fall, with the S&P 500 up about 2.7% late in the session, as Brent fell about 6.6% to near US$92 after President Trump said new strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" and Qatar's prime minister took an Iranian proposal to the White House. Digital assets did not join in: bitcoin is US$74,889, −2.3% on the week and roughly flat on the day, after a Sunday sell-off to US$73,444 cleared about US$1.2 billion of leveraged positions across the market, and ether fell harder than bitcoin. The Australian dollar rebounded to about 0.693 on Monday from Friday's 0.6871 low but is still −1.6% on the week on the ECB fix, and USDT/USD remains 9 bp under par. US October CPI is released tonight at 00:30 AEDT.

Markets

Bitcoin. Bitcoin is US$74,889 on Kraken this morning (Coinbase US$74,845), −2.3% on the week, −9.7% over 30 days and +17.9% over 90 days; the 90-day high is US$86,594 on 21 September. The weekly close on Sunday night confirmed a fifth consecutive losing week, and the selling continued into Monday Asian hours: bitcoin traded down to US$73,444 on Kraken, below last week's US$74,722 low and the 200-day average near US$73,200 that the market had been watching (CryptoTicker, 8 Nov), before recovering to just under US$75,500 (Kraken 24-hour range; Bitcoin.com News, 9 Nov). About US$1.2 billion of crypto positions were liquidated over the move, US$1.04 billion of them longs, including about US$324 million in bitcoin and US$507 million in ether (Coinglass via Bitcoin.com News, 9 Nov). The notable feature is what bitcoin did not do: it was roughly flat on the day (+0.2% against Sunday's close) during a US session in which the Nasdaq rose about 3.1% (Yahoo Finance, 9 Nov), so the post-midterm decoupling from equities that began last week has continued. US spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net US$1.28 billion over 2–6 November (Farside via crypto.news, 8 Nov). In Australian dollars bitcoin is about A$107,800, roughly −1.3% on the week, a smaller fall than in US dollars because the AUD is still weaker than a week ago.

Ether and ETH/BTC. Ether is US$2,130, −5.3% on the week and −14.9% over 30 days. Ether took the larger share of Sunday's liquidations and ETH/BTC fell to 0.0284 from 0.0293 a week ago (−3.0%), giving back last week's brief outperformance; the ratio is about 13% below its 90-day high of 0.0327 on 12 September. US spot ether ETFs lost a further US$365 million over 2–6 November (Farside via crypto.news, 8 Nov).

Desk standouts. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is US$75.34, −10.3% on the week, having given back the late-October rally that made it the group's strongest name; Stellar (XLM) is US$0.148, −9.3% on the week and −25% over 30 days; Solana is US$86.86, −5.4% and −21.0%; Sui is US$0.852, −2.3% on the week, the steadiest of the four alts, but still −23% over 30 days (Kraken). Tether Gold (XAUT) is US$4,122, +4.9% on the week and the only gainer in the set; on the 30-day rebased chart it sits at 99 against 90 for bitcoin and 75–88 for the four alts.

Stablecoin supply. Total stablecoin supply fell US$6.66 billion in the seven days to 7 November to US$292.31 billion, the steepest weekly decline of 2026 and the tenth consecutive daily fall since 29 October; USDT fell US$3.10 billion to US$177.00 billion and USDC US$1.31 billion to US$70.60 billion (DefiLlama via BlockchainReporter and GNcrypto, 8 Nov). Supply is about US$23 billion below its 17 May peak of US$315.54 billion. Shrinking supply means stablecoins are being redeemed for fiat rather than rotated into other tokens, which is consistent with the off-ramping the OTC desk describes below.

Equities, oil and the curve. US equities rallied on Monday: at about 15:15 New York time the S&P 500 was 2.7% higher at 7,575, the Nasdaq Composite 3.1% higher at 25,341 and the Dow 2.4% higher at 52,516 (Yahoo Finance, 9 Nov), leaving the S&P about 3.5% below its October record (AP via BNN Bloomberg, 9 Nov). The cash session closes at 08:00 AEDT, after this update was written. The rally came despite Nvidia, which fell about 4.7% after its board opened an internal investigation involving its chief executive; AMD rose about 11% after an analyst upgrade (AP via BNN Bloomberg; TheStreet, 9 Nov). Oil did most of the work: Brent traded at US$91.84, 6.6% lower on the day, and WTI near US$86, 5.2% lower (AP via BNN Bloomberg; Yahoo Finance, 9 Nov). The US 10-year yield was little changed at about 4.87% and the 2-year about 4 bp higher at 4.56% (Trading Economics, 9 Nov). Gold rose about 1.6% to US$4,137 an ounce (Yahoo Finance, 9 Nov). The ASX 200 fell below 9,000 on Monday morning, to 8,968.5, before closing 0.1% higher at 9,029.7, with materials +2.9% offsetting financials −1.1% (SHARETRADER, 9 Nov).

The Australian dollar. AUD/USD fixed at 0.6894 on Monday's ECB reference rate, −1.6% on the week and −0.7% on the month, and was trading near 0.693 overnight, about 1.0% higher on the day, as oil fell and US equities rallied (Trading Economics, 9 Nov). Friday's 0.6871 fix remains the low of the 90-day window and the weekly close was the lowest since March, a 2.3% fall in five sessions that left the AUD the weakest G10 currency of the week; NAB's Sally Auld called the combination of a risk retreat and a weaker outlook "brutal" (IBTimes UK, 9 Nov). The pair is back above the 0.6895 support level Convera had flagged (Convera, 5 Nov), though Monday's move is a single session. On the crosses, AUD/NZD is 1.2283 (−1.4% w/w), so the AUD lost ground to the kiwi as well; EUR/USD is 1.1193 (−0.2%), GBP/USD 1.3416 and USD/JPY 157.95, both flat on the week (Frankfurter ECB rates, 9 Nov).

Politics and policy

Australia: the RBA on AI and inflation. The cash rate target is 4.85% after the 3 November increase, agreed on a 6–3 vote (RBA Media Release 2026-30, 3 Nov). On Monday Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter said the AI investment boom "will put some upward pressure on inflation" in the near term and "could push up the neutral rate of interest", while its long-run effect on inflation is "likely to be broadly neutral" (RBA speech, UBS Australasia Conference, 9 Nov). She also warned that some asset prices could reprice sharply if returns on AI investment disappoint (Reuters via investingLive, 9 Nov). The market and the majors still read the 6–3 vote as the end of the cycle: Westpac's base case is "a December pause" (Westpac IQ, 6 Nov), CBA and NAB also have no further hike, and ANZ keeps a risk of 5.10% (Aussie/Lendi, 3 Nov). Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment and the NAB business survey are released this morning. The big four's 25 bp variable-rate increases take effect on Friday 13 November.

United States: CPI tonight. October payrolls rose 165,000, unemployment fell to 4.1% and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month (24/7 Wall St, 7 Nov), which lifted CME FedWatch pricing for a 25 bp hike at the 8–9 December FOMC to 76.8% on Friday from 66.9% a week earlier. The FOMC held at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October with two dissents in favour of a hike. October CPI is released at 08:30 New York time on Tuesday, 00:30 AEDT on Wednesday, and is the last CPI print before the December meeting.

United States: Congress, AI and digital assets. Democrats take control of both chambers when the 120th Congress is seated on 3 January 2027, and last week's semiconductor sell-off was the market's first reading of what that may mean for AI and data-centre investment (Yahoo Finance, 6 Nov). For digital assets the open question is market-structure legislation. The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 and stalled in the Senate on 15 September, when cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 failed 49–50 with four Republicans and every voting Democrat opposed (US Senate roll call vote 234, 15 Sep); House Democrats are reported to be considering a replacement bill with broader SEC authority (crypto.news, 4 Nov). No text or timetable has been published.

Iran and oil. President Trump told CNN that renewed strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" to be necessary, depending on "whether or not they sign a very strong agreement" (Reuters via Business Recorder, 9 Nov), and Qatar's prime minister was due at the White House on Monday carrying an Iranian interim proposal (The National, 9 Nov). Israeli media, citing two diplomatic sources, reported that the framework would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt attacks on Gulf tankers in return for lifting the US blockade and releasing about US$8 billion of Iranian funds held in Qatar; neither government has confirmed the terms, and Secretary of State Rubio called Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous" (OilPrice via Energy News Beat, 9 Nov). Separately, Iraq reached an understanding with the US to export crude through a shipping lane near Oman (Reuters via Business Recorder, 9 Nov). Attacks have not stopped: Iran's Revolutionary Guard said three tankers caught fire in the strait on Sunday (The National, 9 Nov). The RBA's November forecasts assume Brent near US$115, so Brent in the low US$90s, if sustained, would take one of the larger inputs out of its inflation path.

Regulation. ASIC's consultation CP 392 on the standards and guidance that implement the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Act 2026 for digital asset platforms and tokenised custody platforms closes at 5pm AEDT on 27 November; the regime commences on 8 April 2027 (ASIC 26-245MR, 15 Oct). No change to how the desk operates today.

What we are watching

• Tuesday 10 November, this morning AEDT. Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment and the NAB business survey, the first read of households and firms after the fifth hike
• Wednesday 11 November, 00:30 AEDT. US October CPI. With payrolls already strong, a firm core print would take December hike pricing above 80%; a soft one is the main thing that could pull it back toward the two-dissent minority
• Wednesday 11 November. US Veterans Day holiday and the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (FinanceFeeds, 7 Nov), the first official read on supply since the blockade escalation
• Thursday 12 November, 10:30 AEDT. Speech by Monetary Policy Board member Marnie Baker at the ARCA Credit Summit (RBA). A board member's account of the 6–3 split, before the minutes
• Tuesday 17 November, 10:00 and 11:30 AEDT. Governor Bullock on a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum, then the RBA November minutes
• Wednesday 18 November, 11:30 AEDT. ABS Wage Price Index for the September quarter
• Thursday 19 November, 11:30 AEDT. ABS labour force for October. A rise in unemployment would strengthen the December pause case
• Wednesday 25 November, 11:30 AEDT. ABS CPI for October, the last inflation print before the December decision
• Friday 27 November, 17:00 AEDT. ASIC CP 392 submissions close
• Sunday 29 November. OPEC+ ministerial meeting (FinanceFeeds, 7 Nov)

OTC desk view

USDT/USD basis. USDT closed at 0.9991 against the US dollar on 9 November, taken as 1 ÷ the Binance USDC/USDT daily close, which is 9 bp under par. The 10-day average is −11 bp, the 30-day low remains −19 bp on 29 October during the Binance hot-wallet outflows, and every one of the 31 daily closes in the window is below par. The discount has held in a narrow −8 to −12 bp range since the midterms despite the swings in bitcoin and equities, which fits a market where stablecoins are being redeemed in an orderly way rather than dumped.

USDT against AUD. USDT/AUD is 1.4411 on Kraken, +1.0% on the week but down from 1.4543 on Sunday, and almost all of both moves is the AUD leg: the USDT discount to the US dollar barely changed while AUD/USD fell last week and rebounded on Monday. The chart below compares the Kraken USDT/AUD daily close with the rate implied by the ECB USD/AUD fix and the USDT/USD basis. Over the last five sessions the median gap is about +9 bp. The two large readings, +102 bp on 5 November and −48 bp on 9 November, are timing effects rather than dislocations: the ECB fixes at 14:15 CET and the Kraken close is at midnight UTC, and on both days the AUD moved sharply in between. Neo-X quotes USDT/AUD as one all-in rate that already includes the FX leg, the basis and settlement, so clients see a single price rather than the components.

Flow. Client flow picked up through Friday and into the weekend, after Thursday's equity sell-off and the payrolls print. Bitcoin flow leaned clearly to the buy side, with clients accumulating while the price held below US$76,000; flow in the desk's alt names was smaller and close to balanced, with a slight net lean to buying. The largest share of volume was in stablecoins against the Australian dollar, USDT/AUD and USDC/AUD, and most of it was clients selling stablecoins for AUD, at a time when the weaker AUD had lifted USDT/AUD to the top of its 30-day range. These are observations of the desk's own flow, not a view on direction.

Liquidity and settlement. The two stress points in the past week were Thursday's equity sell-off, when bitcoin fell 5.5% close to close and Deribit's DVOL touched 43, and Sunday's liquidation cascade, which ran through thin weekend books. Neo-X prices against roughly 25 venues plus internal inventory, so a wider spread on any one venue during moves like these is not passed through one for one. Settlement across the Global Settlement Network ran to schedule: same-day in AUD via Cuscal and Banking Circle AU, and same-day across the other 26 currencies within their local cut-offs. The desk is staffed 8am–10pm AEST with 24-hour support.

Derivatives desk view

Options positioning. Open interest for the 25 December quarterly expiry on Deribit remains call-heavy: across strikes from US$60,000 to US$120,000 it is about 39,800 BTC in calls against 18,800 BTC in puts, a put/call ratio of 0.47, up from 0.45 on Monday morning (Deribit, 10 Nov). The change is in the puts just below spot: the US$70,000 put rose to 3,526 BTC from about 2,490 BTC, the largest one-day addition on the board, while call open interest was broadly unchanged. The largest single lines are still the US$80,000 call (8,070 BTC), the US$100,000 call (6,624 BTC) and the US$60,000 put (6,521 BTC). Implied volatility has a smile: about 38% at US$75,000–80,000, 40% at US$70,000 and 48% at US$60,000 on the put side, and 44% at US$100,000 and 52% at US$120,000 on the call side. DVOL is about 40, up from 38 before last Thursday's sell-off (Deribit).

One illustrative structure. With spot at about US$74,900, a zero-premium collar to the 25 December expiry shows how the current smile prices protection. Illustratively, a holder buys a US$65,000 put and sells a US$85,000 call for the same expiry; at indicative Deribit marks the two premiums roughly offset, each about US$1,000 per BTC. If bitcoin is below US$65,000 at expiry, the holder's loss from today's spot is capped at about 13%; if it is above US$85,000, the holder forgoes all upside beyond about 14%; between the two strikes the holder is fully exposed to the move in either direction. Zero-cost means zero premium, not zero risk: the sold call is an obligation to deliver at US$85,000, margin is required against it, and the structure's mark-to-market moves with volatility before expiry. These strikes and premiums are illustrative only and are not a quote; actual terms depend on the volatility surface at the time of pricing and on margin terms. Neo-X acts as principal to the structure and may hold the offsetting position.

AUD/USD volatility. AUD/USD fell 1.6% between the 2 and 9 November ECB fixes, and the intraday range was wider: a low near 0.6866 at Friday's close and a rebound to about 0.693 on Monday. Realised volatility has risen accordingly: annualised from daily ECB fixes, it is about 15% over the last five sessions and about 10% over the last twenty, against about 7% over sixty sessions (Frankfurter ECB rates, desk calculation). On forward points, three-month BBSW at 4.94% (5 Nov) against the US three-month bill at 4.11% (6 Nov) puts indicative one-month points at about −5 pips and three-month points at about −14 pips, so the forward AUD/USD rate sits slightly below spot and an exporter selling USD forward receives slightly more AUD than at today's spot (Trading Economics; desk calculation from covered interest parity, illustrative, not a quote). The cash-rate differential is about 97 bp in the AUD's favour against the midpoint of the Fed funds range; a December Fed hike against an RBA pause would narrow it by 25 bp and pull the forward points toward zero. Live implied volatility and executable forward points are available from the desk on request.

What would change the view. Three things. Tonight's US CPI: a firm core print would take December hike pricing above 80% and add to the pressure on bitcoin and the AUD, a soft one would do the reverse. A confirmed US–Iran agreement would take Brent further below US$90 and out of line with the RBA's US$115 assumption, while a breakdown would reverse Monday's oil move within a session. And bitcoin's relationship with equities: if it keeps falling on days when the Nasdaq rises, the selling is coming from crypto-specific deleveraging and ETF outflows rather than macro, and the desk would watch the US$73,000–74,000 area and the build in December US$70,000 puts for whether that deleveraging has run its course. None of these is a forecast; they are the inputs the desk is pricing against.

Neo-X Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 674 294 127) holds Australian Financial Services Licence 558430. Client-facing services are provided by Neochain Pty Ltd, Corporate Authorised Representative 001320366. This update is for wholesale clients only within the meaning of sections 761G, 761GA and 708 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and must not be distributed to retail clients. Neo-X acts as principal, makes markets and may hold positions in the assets and instruments discussed. Derivatives carry significant risk, including the risk of loss exceeding the initial outlay; option premium is not income and a zero-premium structure is not a riskless one. All figures are illustrative and are not quotes. Market data from Kraken, Coinbase, Binance (data-api.binance.vision), Deribit, Frankfurter (ECB reference rates) and Trading Economics; news sources are cited in the text and dated. This update contains general market commentary only and is not financial product advice; it does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Contact: sales@neox.au · (02) 9136 0264 · Suite 3.03, 80 Mount Street, North Sydney NSW 2060.