Market Update: 3 November 2026

Tuesday 3 November 2026, 15:00 AEDT, written after the RBA decision and before the Governor's press conference. Commentary from the Neo-X OTC Desk and the Neo-X Derivatives Desk. Wholesale clients only. All levels are illustrative and are not quotes; prices move after publication.

At a glance

Three things set the table today. The RBA raised the cash rate 25 bp to 4.85% at 14:30 AEDT on a split 6–3 vote, the fifth hike of 2026 and the highest cash rate since 2008, with inflation now forecast to stay above 3% until late 2027 (RBA media release 2026-30, 3 Nov); AUD/USD sold the fact to about 0.6985 on the Kraken-implied cross. Oil had its largest fall since July on Monday, WTI settling 7.4% lower at US$96.46 and Brent at US$104.77, after Washington and Tehran signalled a negotiated end to the conflict, then steadied in Asia on reports of US strikes on Qeshm Island (ABC News, 3 Nov; Gulf News, 3 Nov). Americans vote in the midterms tonight AEDT, with Democrats favoured in the polling to take the House; the Nasdaq closed 1.1% lower and is more than 10% off its October high. Bitcoin is US$76,774, −5.0% on the week and still below the US$80,000 it held before the Binance breach, and USDT/USD is 12 bp under par.

Markets

Bitcoin. Bitcoin is US$76,774 on Kraken at 14:50 AEDT, −5.0% on the week, −11.3% over 30 days and +19.9% over 90 days, with a 90-day range of US$62,819 (15 Aug) to US$86,594 (23 Sep). Bitcoin has traded a US$76,400–78,600 band for three sessions since the Binance hot-wallet breach of 29 October UTC, which the FBI has attributed to North Korea's TraderTraitor group (Euronews, 2 Nov). Friday's Deribit monthly expiry settled at US$78,119 against US$78,000 max pain (BigGo Finance, 30 Oct). The flow picture is weaker than the price: US spot bitcoin ETFs lost US$643.3 million on Friday 30 October, the largest one-day outflow since 25 June, which took calendar-2026 net inflows down to roughly US$0.4 billion (CoinDesk, 2 Nov). The next two scheduled catalysts are the US midterm count from Wednesday morning AEDT and Binance's zero-knowledge proof of reserves, now due by end of Tuesday UTC after a one-day slip (Bitcoin.com News, 2 Nov). In Australian dollars the picture is a little softer on the month and a little better over the quarter: BTC/AUD is A$109,922 on Kraken, −4.3% on the week, −11.7% over 30 days and +20.9% over 90 days from a 90-day high of A$124,458 on 2 October, with the weaker AUD since the breach absorbing roughly a point of the USD drawdown.

Bitcoin and gold. The chart below rebases bitcoin and tokenised gold (Tether Gold, XAUT, which trades within a few dollars of spot) to 3 October. Over the 30 days gold is −5.5% and bitcoin −9.4%, and almost all of the gap opened on 29 October: the two moved together through the first three weeks of the month, then bitcoin fell about 4% on the breach while gold held, and on Monday gold rose 1.8% on the oil fall while bitcoin was flat. Bitcoin is trading as a venue-risk asset this week rather than as a macro hedge, and one bitcoin buys about 19.6 ounces of gold, down from roughly 20.5 at the start of October (Kraken XBT/USD and XAUT/USD daily closes).

Ether and ETH/BTC. Ether is US$2,249, −4.2% on the week and −17.0% over 30 days, having peaked at US$2,776 on 23 September. ETH/BTC is 0.0293, in line with a week ago, so ether is tracking bitcoin rather than leading it lower. US spot ether ETFs recorded a further US$431 million of net outflows over the five sessions to 30 October (CoinDesk, 2 Nov). The FBI says the stolen Binance assets are being converted into ETH for laundering through DeFi and instant-swap services (reported by Euronews, 2 Nov), which is a two-sided factor for ether over the coming weeks: buying on the way in, selling on the way out.

Stablecoin supply. Binance's tracked assets fell from about US$144.9 billion on 29 October to roughly US$128.3 billion early on 2 November, a decline of about US$16.6 billion that includes the stolen US$6.3 billion and lower prices as well as withdrawals (DefiLlama figures via Bitcoin.com News, 2 Nov). The first withdrawal phase on Sunday 1 November saw US$4.65 billion withdrawn against US$1.01 billion deposited, a net US$3.64 billion or 2.1% of assets (Binance figures, Euronews, 2 Nov). Withdrawals of BTC, ETH, USDT, USDC, BNB, SOL and XRP are open; Binance says it has set aside US$6.34 billion of its own funds.

Equities, oil and the curve. Monday's US session reversed a midday rally: the S&P 500 closed −0.5% at 7,541, the Nasdaq −1.1% at 25,164, now more than 10% below its October high, and the Dow +0.4% at 51,984 (TheStreet, 2 Nov). Apple beat on revenue (US$114.5 billion) and EPS (US$2.10) but fell 1.8% in the session and about 1% after hours on slowing growth. WTI December settled 7.4% lower at US$96.46 and Brent 7.6% lower at US$104.77, the largest one-day fall since July, after President Trump said an Iran deal "could happen" and Iranian and Qatari officials met over the weekend (ABC News, 3 Nov); both grades were little changed in Asian trade on Tuesday after reports of US strikes on Qeshm Island (Trading Economics, 3 Nov). The US 10-year closed 2 bp lower at 4.91%, the lowest since mid-September, with the 2-year at 4.61%, and markets still price roughly 75% for a Federal Reserve hike at the 8–9 December meeting (Trading Economics, 2 Nov). Gold rose about 1.8% on Monday and gave back 0.5% to about US$3,927/oz in Asia. The ASX 200 closed 0.6% lower at 8,857 on Monday and was +0.2% at 8,872 shortly before the RBA announcement (Trading Economics; ABC News, 3 Nov).

The Australian dollar. AUD/USD is about 0.6985 at 14:50 AEDT on the Kraken-implied cross (BTC/AUD against BTC/USD), compared with 0.7008 on the ECB reference rate for Monday and an overnight low of 0.6999 (ABC News, 3 Nov). The pair is −0.6% on the week and has a 90-day range of 0.6911 (15 Oct) to 0.7225 (10 Sep). The hike was fully priced, the vote was split three ways against it, and the statement did not commit to December, so the reaction was the "sell the fact" that CBA flagged this morning rather than a break of the 0.7076 resistance it identified. On the crosses, AUD/NZD was 1.2456 on Monday's ECB fix (+0.7% w/w) and gave ground to the kiwi after the decision; EUR/USD is 1.1216 (+0.3% w/w), GBP/USD 1.3419 (+0.5%) ahead of Thursday night's Bank of England decision, and USD/JPY 157.90 (+0.3%), still pinned under 158. The chart below puts today's move in its policy context: the RBA cash rate target against the midpoint of the Fed funds range since January 2025 (RBA cash-rate target table; Federal Reserve open-market operations). The two crossed in late 2025, when the RBA was cutting to 3.60% and the Fed was still at 4.375%; since February the RBA has added 125 bp in five moves while the Fed cut to 3.625% and then hiked once in September, and the gap is now +97 bp in the AUD's favour, the widest in the series, from −3 bp in January 2025.

Politics and policy

RBA: 4.85%, 6–3, and a longer inflation path. The Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate target from 4.60% to 4.85% at 14:30 AEDT. Six members voted for the increase and three to hold (RBA media release 2026-30, 3 Nov), a split after September's unanimous move. The statement describes underlying inflation as broadly based, cites higher fuel and commodity prices from the Middle East conflict feeding into costs, says liaison shows many firms raising or planning to raise prices, and notes that some measures of inflation expectations have risen. The November Statement on Monetary Policy revises the outlook materially: headline inflation peaks at 4.5% in the December quarter, headline and trimmed mean stay above 3% until late 2027, about three quarters later than the August forecast, and inflation returns to the 2.5% midpoint only in mid-2028; unemployment, 4.6% in the September quarter, is forecast to reach 5.1% by end-2028, and the Board's NAIRU estimate has been raised to about 4.75%. The forecasts assume roughly 35 bp of further tightening by mid-2027, in line with market pricing and up to 50 bp above the August assumption, and Brent at about US$115 (investingLive summary of the SMP, 3 Nov). The guidance is deliberately open: the Board "will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target" and is "attentive to the data". Among the majors, CBA and NAB had November as the last hike before today; ANZ sees a risk of 5.10% in December or February (ABC News, 3 Nov). The desk's reading is that a three-member dissent and an explicit 35 bp assumption pull in opposite directions, which is why the currency did not move: the hawks got the forecasts, the doves got the vote.

United States: midterms tonight. Polls close from 10:00 AEDT Wednesday (6pm ET Tuesday) and the last close in Alaska is 17:00 AEDT. Republicans defend a 218–214 House majority and a 53–47 Senate; the polling average sits around D+9, CBS's tracker had Democrats on course for about 229 House seats with a range that still includes a narrow Republican hold, and 11 Senate seats are competitive, eight of them Republican-held (CBS News, 2 Nov; TheStreet, 2 Nov). More than 57 million Americans voted early. For digital-asset markets the outcome matters in two places. A Democratic House would end the current path for the CLARITY Act market-structure bill, which has not reached a Senate floor vote, and would hand the agenda to the SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets and the GENIUS Act implementing rules now in comment periods. A divided Congress also makes the fiscal path less certain into a Fed meeting on 8–9 December at which markets price roughly 75% for a 25 bp hike; the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October with two dissents in favour of a hike (Federal Reserve). Friday's October payrolls report is the last major data point before that meeting.

Iran: talks and strikes at the same time. Oil's 7–8% fall on Monday followed weekend mediation between Iranian and Qatari officials, a circulating draft proposal to end the war, a letter from Vice President Vance to Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei, and President Trump's comment that a deal "could happen". Overnight the picture became two-sided: the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that the US struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz as one of a series of limited strikes in recent weeks; Iranian media reported five explosions and an IRGC claim to have downed a US drone, which CENTCOM called false; and UKMTO reported a vessel struck by an unknown projectile off Oman near the strait's mouth (Gulf News, 3 Nov). Iran says the US must lift its naval blockade before any agreement; Vance says the two sides are "still working toward a deal". President Trump had earlier said he would consider renewed strikes after the midterms. The RBA's forecasts assume Brent near US$115, so a durable settlement would take the single largest input out of the inflation path it published today; the reverse holds if the strait closes again.

Australian digital-asset rules. ASIC's consultation on implementing the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Act 2026 (CP 392: draft guidance, asset-holding, trading and settlement standards, and financial requirements including net tangible asset tests) closes at 5pm AEDT on 27 November, with the new regime commencing 8 April 2027 (ASIC media release 26-245MR, 15 Oct). No change to how the desk operates today.

What we are watching

• Tue 3 Nov, 15:30 AEDT – Governor Bullock's press conference. Whether she frames the 6–3 vote as a near-pause or defends the 35 bp assumption decides how AUD/USD trades into the US open.
• Wed 4 Nov, by 11:00 AEDT (end of Tuesday UTC) – Binance zero-knowledge proof of reserves. A clean attestation covering post-withdrawal balances closes the venue-risk chapter; a snapshot that predates the withdrawal wave, as the 31 October data did, reopens it.
• Wed 4 Nov from 10:00 AEDT – US midterm results. House control decides whether market-structure legislation gets a second attempt in 2027 and how fiscal negotiations run into the December FOMC. Expect two-way headline volatility in BTC and AUD through the Asian morning.
• Thu 5 Nov, 02:00 AEDT – US ISM services; Thu 5 Nov, 23:00 AEDT – Bank of England decision with the Monetary Policy Report. The BoE is the only G10 central bank this week where a cut is live; GBP/USD is the cross most exposed.
• Sat 7 Nov, 00:30 AEDT – US October payrolls. The last employment print before the 8–9 December FOMC. A hot print cements the roughly 75% hike pricing; a soft one is the only thing that would dislodge it.
• Ongoing – US–Iran talks and the Strait of Hormuz. Any confirmed follow-up meeting, or any confirmed strike, moves Brent by several dollars within minutes; Brent at US$115 is the RBA's baseline.
• Fri 27 Nov, 17:00 AEDT – ASIC CP 392 submissions close. Then 8 April 2027 for commencement of the Digital Assets Framework regime.

OTC desk view

USDT/USD basis. USDT is 12 bp under par on the Binance USDC/USDT daily close, with the 10-day average at −13 bp and the 30-day low of −19 bp set on 29 October, the day of the breach. Every one of the last 32 daily closes has been below par. The direction of the discount is consistent with the venue flow: holders who withdrew USDT from Binance and converted to USDC or fiat on the way out pay a few basis points for the privilege. For AUD clients the number that matters is USDT/AUD, which Kraken prints at 1.4297 at 14:50 AEDT, up from 1.4212 at Monday's open, and that move is almost entirely the AUD leg after the RBA rather than the USDT leg. Neo-X quotes an all-in rate for USDT against AUD that includes the basis, the FX leg and settlement; the basis is visible in the rate, not charged separately.

Flow. Client flow since the last issue has been dominated by USDT sellers: off-ramping from USDT into AUD has been the single most consistent ticket through the week, in keeping with the venue outflows and the basis above. Bitcoin against AUD has been steady and two-way, with buyers and sellers both active through the breach and the RBA, and a slight net lean to the buy side. These are observations of flow through the desk, not a view on direction.

Liquidity and settlement. Pricing continued through the Binance withdrawal pause: the desk sources liquidity from approximately 25 venues, so the loss of one venue's withdrawals changes routing, not availability. Settlement runs as usual: same-day across 27 currencies on the Global Settlement Network, blockchain rails for digital assets. AUD liquidity was thinner than usual between 14:30 and 15:00 AEDT around the announcement and on Melbourne Cup afternoon; it normally recovers through the London open. The desk continues to quote through the press conference and through the US count on Wednesday morning, with wider spreads in AUD pairs in the minutes around headlines.

Derivatives desk view

Options positioning. The breach moved the skew back to puts after a week in which the front end had flattened: Deribit saw 1.63 BTC of puts bought for every BTC of calls in the 24 hours through Friday morning, concentrated in US$74,000–78,000 puts for this week and mid-November, including two 1,000 BTC blocks of mid-November US$74,000 puts (about US$155 million notional) and 500 BTC blocks of November US$64,000 puts (BigGo Finance, 30 Oct). Implied volatility (DVOL) spiked from 37 to 42 and settled near 39. Beyond the front, positioning remains call-biased: the 27 November expiry carries 4,293 BTC of open interest in US$90,000 calls against 2,447 BTC in US$75,000 puts, and the put/call ratio into Friday's US$10.9 billion expiry was 0.53. Max pain for 6 and 27 November is US$80,000 and for the 25 December quarterly US$75,000. With the midterm count and the Binance attestation both landing on Wednesday AEDT, the desk sees the 6 November weekly as the most event-dense expiry of the quarter. Perpetual funding stayed positive through the incident, so leveraged longs were not flushed; that is one reason the desk does not treat the drawdown as complete.

Illustrative structure. For a holder of BTC with a 31 December horizon, a zero-premium collar at today's indicative levels would buy a US$70,000 put and sell a US$90,000 call for roughly the same premium, so no cash changes hands at inception. If BTC is at US$60,000 on expiry the holder is protected from US$70,000 down, giving up the first US$6,800 (about 9%) of the fall from spot; if BTC is at US$100,000 the holder has sold the upside above US$90,000 and forgoes roughly US$10,000 per coin; between the strikes the holder is fully exposed to spot in both directions. Zero-cost means zero premium, not zero risk: the sold call can be assigned, margin is required against it, and the structure's value moves with volatility and funding before expiry. All strikes and premiums here are illustrative and are not quotes; Neo-X acts as principal and may hold positions in the underlying.

AUD/USD volatility. The RBA-day straddle was priced for a move of roughly 0.4–0.5% and the spot reaction has so far been about half of that, so event volatility is being sold into the press conference; the midterm count on Wednesday morning is the next vol event. For AUD-based holders of USD-denominated digital assets, today's hike raises the carry cost of hedging USD exposure forward: the AUD–USD cash-rate differential is now about 85–110 bp in the AUD's favour (97 bp against the midpoint, per the policy-rate chart above), and the forward points work further against the hedger.

What would change the view. Three things would move the desk off its current read. A Democratic House confirmed by Wednesday afternoon AEDT, together with a clean Binance attestation, would remove two overhangs at once and likely compress front-end put skew; the reverse combination would extend it. A confirmed US–Iran meeting with a date and venue would take Brent toward US$95 and begin to unwind the inflation path the RBA published today, which is the single development most likely to turn AUD/USD lower on rates rather than higher on risk. A payrolls print on Friday soft enough to take the December Fed hike below 50% would be the first macro input in two months to favour duration and, with it, the longer-dated BTC call wing.

Neo-X Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 674 294 127) holds Australian Financial Services Licence 558430. Client-facing services are provided by Neochain Pty Ltd, Corporate Authorised Representative 001320366. This Market Update is prepared for wholesale clients only within the meaning of sections 761G, 761GA and 708 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and is not for distribution to retail clients. Neo-X acts as principal, makes markets and may hold positions in the assets and instruments discussed. Derivatives, including options and collars, involve the risk of loss as well as gain; a zero-premium structure limits upside as well as downside and may require margin. Data sources: Kraken, ECB reference rates via Frankfurter, Binance public market data (data-api.binance.vision), Trading Economics, ABC News, TheStreet, CoinDesk, Euronews, Gulf News, CBS News, Bitcoin.com News, investingLive, ASIC, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve, as cited in the text; all figures are as at the times stated and are illustrative, not quotes. Nothing in this update is financial product advice and it does not take into account any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Contact the desk: sales@neox.au · (02) 9136 0264.